BTC and the bond market: week of 12 Oct 2026, Sunday wrap
Yesterday's note was an early first edition. This is the full-week wrap, with Sunday's data and a look ahead to the week of 19 Oct.
What BTC did this week
BTC/EUR was at about €72,020 on Kraken on Sunday evening, down 3.6% from last Sunday's daily close of €74,700. The week's high was €75,199 on Monday 12 Oct and the low was €71,071 on Thursday 15 Oct, a range of about 5.8%. Over the past 30 days BTC is still up about 2.4%.
The weekend was thin and quiet. Sunday had a midday pop to €73,151 that faded through the afternoon to around €72,050. There was no clear crypto-specific trigger; the timing lined up loosely with a headline about a large Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil terminal, and coins were flowing onto exchanges. US spot Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of about $82m on Friday and about $228m over the week.
The bond market and print pressure
The site's big-print pressure rating stayed low at every check this week, with no sign of acute stress.
- Yields are soft, not spiking. Bond markets have been shut since Friday, when the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.09% and the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields was +35bp.
- Bond volatility and the plumbing are calm. The MOVE index was about 101, the Fed's standing repo facility saw zero use on Friday, and the dollar index sat near 101.8.
- The NY Fed's bill purchases aren't QE. Up to $14.6bn of Treasury bill buying from 19 Oct to 9 Nov is routine reinvestment of mortgage-bond paydowns, so the balance sheet stays flat.
- A slow-burn worry. Japanese banks sold $16bn of foreign bonds in September, their ninth straight monthly sale. That chips away at foreign demand for Treasuries, but it isn't acute.
Oil remains the wild card. Brent settled Friday at $109.86, Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims tankers hit mines near the Strait of Hormuz while US Central Command says the strait is open, and Iran's foreign minister says a 7-day reopening offer still stands.
On-chain
The on-chain stance ended the weekend at cautious (mild), after a brief move to neutral on Sunday morning.
- MVRV: 1.57 (MVRV-Z 0.99), mid-range and not overheated.
- SOPR: 1.005, with short-term holders at 0.9997, right at breakeven.
- Long-term holders: supply still falling on the latest free reading, down about 76,000 coins week on week to about 14.48 million.
- Exchange flows: about 6,230 coins net into exchanges over 7 days, the main reason for the cautious read.
- Funding and open interest: funding is calm at about 0.005% per 8 hours; open interest on the main OKX and Deribit perpetuals is about $3.4bn.
These are shadow signals being tested; the bot doesn't use them. With only a couple of days of readings, it's far too early to judge them.
What the trend bot is doing
The bot is in the market, holding since 16 Oct, with the position about 1.6% below its entry price.
- Trend exit: a daily close more than 2% below the 50-day average, now about €69,862, roughly 3.0% below the current price.
- Crash stop: about €67,556, roughly 6.2% below the current price.
Neither exit has come close this week.
What to watch next week
- The Sunday-night open: US futures and Asia trading are the first real test of the Hormuz and oil headlines.
- 20-year Treasury auction, Wednesday 21 Oct: the week's main bond-demand test, followed by 5-year TIPS on Thursday.
- Earnings and data: Tesla and Meta report Wednesday, then jobless claims Thursday and consumer sentiment Friday.
- The Fed: the next meeting is around 28 Oct.
- The €69,862 trend-exit line if risk assets sell off again.
Not financial advice. Hobby project; prices and percentages only.