BTC and the bond market: week of 12 Oct 2026
Welcome to the first weekly note: what Bitcoin did, what the bond market says about the chances of a big money-printing response, and where the site's trend-following bot stands.
What BTC did this week
BTC/EUR was at about €72,450 on Kraken by Saturday midday, down 3.0% from last Sunday's daily close of €74,700. The week's high was €75,199 on Monday 12 Oct, and the low was €71,071 on Thursday 15 Oct, a range of about 5.8% from top to bottom. Over the past 30 days BTC is still up about 9%.
The dips lined up with selling in tech stocks and oil headlines rather than anything crypto-specific. On Friday BTC slipped to about €71,920 as the Nasdaq fell 2% and oil traded above $100. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $82m of net outflows on Friday.
The bond market and print pressure
The site's big-print pressure rating starts this week at low, with no sign of acute stress.
- US yields fell. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.09%, down 15 basis points on the week and its lowest close since 22 Sep. It peaked at 5.31% on 5 Oct. The 30-year fell 17bp to 5.43%, and the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed from +44bp to +35bp.
- Bond volatility is easing. The MOVE index was 101, down from a peak of 114 on 5 Oct.
- The plumbing is calm. The Fed's standing repo facility saw zero use on Friday, and short-term funding rates sat below its ceiling.
- The dollar softened. The dollar index ended near 101.8, its first weekly loss in five weeks.
- Europe is stressed but steady. The French–German 10-year spread was 137bp, below its 2 Oct high.
Inflation is still the catch: US September CPI was 3.7% and producer prices rose 6.3% year on year, with Brent oil above $112. Odds of a late-October Fed hike reportedly fell from over 50% to about 15%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% on the week. Nothing in the bond market is forcing a money-printing response yet; a path to one would run through a growth scare rather than broken bond markets.
On-chain
The first on-chain readings start this weekend: MVRV, long-term holder trends, exchange flows, SOPR, funding rates, open interest and ETF flows, rated bullish, neutral or cautious. They're shadow signals being tested; the bot doesn't use them.
What the trend bot is doing
The bot is in the market. It bought on 16 Oct after BTC closed more than 2% above its 50-day average.
- Trend exit: sell if a daily close comes in more than 2% below the 50-day average. That level is now about €69,759, roughly 3.9% below the current price.
- Crash stop: sell if the price falls 3 ATR (average daily ranges) below the entry. That level is about €67,556, roughly 7.2% below the current price.
- Cool-off: after a stop-loss sale, the bot waits until the next day before it can buy back in.
The position is about 1.0% below its entry price, so this week's dip hasn't come close to either exit.
What to watch next week
- Treasury auctions: 20-year on 21 Oct, then 2-year (26 Oct), 5-year (27 Oct) and 7-year (29 Oct). Weak demand would be the first sign of strain.
- Oil and the Strait of Hormuz: conflicting overnight reports about a tanker hitting a mine could push oil and inflation fears higher.
- Tech stocks: if the Nasdaq sell-off continues, expect BTC to follow, and watch the €69,759 trend-exit line.
- The Fed: whether hike odds keep falling into the late-October meeting.
Not financial advice. Hobby project; prices and percentages only.