BTC and the bond market: week of 19 Oct 2026
A busier week for bonds than for Bitcoin. Here's the Sunday wrap, with a look ahead to the week of 26 Oct.
What BTC did this week
BTC/EUR was at about €71,830 on Kraken on Sunday evening, down 1.7% from last Sunday's daily close of €73,069. The week's high was €75,526 on Wednesday 21 Oct and the low was €70,726 on Saturday 24 Oct, a range of about 6.8%.
The week split in two. Through Wednesday BTC climbed with tech stocks and a strong ETF day (US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $525m on 21 Oct). Then the AI-stock selloff hit on Thursday, ETFs saw about $636m of outflows on 22 Oct (the largest since late June) and another $138m on 23 Oct, and BTC drifted lower. Saturday had a brief flush to €70,726 with over $200m of liquidations, which recovered. The weekend was thin, with BTC hovering around $80k.
The bond market and print pressure
The site's big-print pressure rating moved from low to rising on Wednesday evening, and it's the euro side doing the work, not the US.
- France is the stress point. The French 10-year yield went above 5% for the first time since 2002 and had its first weekly close above 5% since then. The gap over German bonds reached about 177bp on Thursday, the widest since 2011, before easing to about 170bp. There's still no ECB response.
- Moody's held off. A French downgrade was widely expected on Friday, but Moody's kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, so the acute-stress flag switched back off on Saturday.
- US Treasuries acted as a haven. The 10-year yield fell about 19bp on Thursday, its biggest one-day drop since March 2023, and ended the week at about 4.99%, down roughly 11bp. Falling US yields take US print pressure down, not up.
- A slow burn. Japanese investors sold foreign bonds for a fifth straight week.
Oil is the other big driver. Brent closed Friday at $116.72, a six-month high, after attacks in Saudi Arabia and talk of US strikes on Iran. On Sunday the US president said there would be no strike that day, with Qatari mediators in Tehran.
On-chain
The on-chain stance was neutral all week, after last weekend's cautious reading.
- MVRV: 1.53 (MVRV-Z 0.94), mid-range and not overheated.
- SOPR: 1.0018, with short-term holders at 1.0004, right around breakeven (latest free reading, from 18 Oct).
- Long-term holders: supply still falling on the latest free reading.
- Funding and open interest: funding is calm at about 0.004% per 8 hours; open interest on the main OKX and Deribit perpetuals is about $3.3bn.
- Sentiment: the Fear & Greed index is 54, down from 68 earlier in the week.
A first weekly check of these shadow signals found rising print pressure lined up with weaker BTC, but that's one switch in one week, overlapping the AI selloff and oil. Far too little data to lean on, and the bot doesn't use them.
What the trend bot is doing
The bot is in the market, holding since 16 Oct, with the position about 1.8% below its entry price. BTC is now trading just under its 50-day average.
- Trend exit: a daily close more than 2% below the 50-day average, now about €70,597, roughly 1.7% below the current price.
- Crash stop: about €67,556, roughly 6.0% below the current price.
The trend-exit line is much closer than last week, when it sat about 3% away.
What to watch next week
- The Sunday-night reopen: futures and Brent are the first test of the Iran headlines.
- The Fed, Wednesday: the rate decision lands alongside Microsoft and Alphabet earnings.
- ECB, Thursday 29 Oct: a hold is expected; watch for anything on France.
- US data, Thursday: PCE inflation and Q3 GDP, then the Bank of Japan on Friday.
- The €70,597 trend-exit line: a daily close below it would take the bot out.
Not financial advice. Hobby project; prices and percentages only.