BTC and the bond market: week of 26 Oct 2026
A rough week for Bitcoin and a calm one for bonds. Here's the Sunday wrap, with a look ahead to the week of 2 Nov.
What BTC did this week
BTC/EUR was at about €69,900 on Kraken on Sunday evening, down 2.0% from last Sunday's daily close of €71,355. The week's high was €73,430 on Wednesday 28 Oct and the low was €68,222 in the early hours of Friday 30 Oct, a range of about 7.6%.
The first half was steady. BTC climbed back above its 50-day average on Tuesday and rallied after the Fed held rates on Wednesday. Then it turned. A hawkish read of the Fed brought long liquidations overnight into Thursday, and on Thursday evening news broke of a roughly $6.3bn hack at Binance, the largest ever. BTC dropped below €70,000 within the hour and hit the week's low overnight. Friday added a sharp AI and tech selloff, with the Nasdaq down 3.4%. Binance said it covered the losses from its own reserves and restored services, and the weekend was quiet, with BTC pinned around €69,500 to €70,000 on thin volume.
ETF flows turned too: US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $137m on 28 Oct and $17m on 29 Oct, then saw $643m of outflows on 30 Oct, the largest in about four months.
The bond market and print pressure
The site's big-print pressure rating stayed at rising all week, but the bond market itself was calm. The acute-stress flag stayed off.
- The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday with two dissents in favour of a hike. Odds of a December hike went to about 85%, then eased to about 70% by Friday.
- Treasuries rallied. The 10-year yield touched 5.04% after the Fed, then fell to 4.94% by Friday's close, about 40bp off its October highs and a fourth straight weekly gain.
- Auctions were fine. The 5-year and 7-year sales came in line, though foreign buyers were light again.
- Central banks held. The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50% and the Bank of Japan stayed at 1.25%.
- No plumbing stress. No QE, yield-curve control or repo-facility news. One analyst expects the Fed to start modest bill purchases before year-end, which is worth watching.
So this week's stress came from crypto and tech, not from bonds.
On-chain
The on-chain stance was neutral all week.
- MVRV: 1.44 (MVRV-Z 0.77), down from 1.53 last week and still mid-range.
- SOPR: 1.0026, back above breakeven after dipping to 0.993 on 30 Oct. Short-term holders are at 0.9991, just under 1.
- Funding and open interest: funding is calm at about 0.005% per 8 hours, and open interest on the main OKX and Deribit perpetuals is about $3.3bn.
- Sentiment: the Fear & Greed index fell from 51 to 30 after the hack and is now 34.
The Sunday signal check found that on-chain readings gave no early warning before the drop. SOPR only dipped below 1 afterwards. Rising print pressure still lines up with weaker BTC, but it's one regime change in two weeks, mixed up with the Fed, the AI selloff and the hack. That's too little data to lean on, and the bot doesn't use these signals.
What the trend bot is doing
The bot is out of the market. Thursday's daily close of €69,588 was below its trend-exit line (2% under the 50-day average), so it sold at about €69,550 just after midnight on 30 Oct, roughly 5% below its 16 Oct entry price.
- Re-entry: it buys back when a daily close is more than 2% above the 50-day average. That line is now about €73,955, roughly 5.8% above the current price.
- Crash stop: none for now, since there's no open position.
What to watch next week
- Monday 2 Nov: US Treasury financing estimates.
- Tuesday 3 Nov: the US midterm elections, plus any Iran escalation linked to the result.
- Wednesday 4 Nov: the quarterly refunding announcement, with a record borrowing week behind it.
- Friday 6 Nov: the US jobs report.
- ETF flows: whether last Friday's outflow was a one-off.
- The €73,955 re-entry line: a daily close above it would put the bot back in.
Not financial advice. Hobby project; prices and percentages only.